jeudi 27 avril 2017

What Does the Nintendo Switch Launch Success Mean?


Update: Nintendo has revealed concrete sales numbers, but do they tell us anything?

Update: As part of its year-end earnings release, Nintendo revealed that 2.74 million Nintendo Switch units were sold worldwide in the console's first month on sale. 2.76 million copies of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild were sold in that same timeframe for the Switch.

With these updated numbers, which come after Nintendo and the NPD Group previously revealed the console and game's first month North American sales, Nintendo has offered a much more defined point of comparison to previous Nintendo hardware sales.

Though not the exact same timeframe, Nintendo previously revealed that, in about its first 1.5 months on sale (from November 19, 2006 through December 31, 2006), the original Wii sold 3.19 million units worldwide, while the Wii U sold 3.06 million units worldwide from its initial North American launch on November 18, 2012 through December 31, 2012.

Those are not exactly the same timeframes as the Switch's initial sales window that Nintendo has revealed, but do offer some idea of how the Switch is performing in the history of recent Nintendo hardware. And those sales do surpass Nintendo president Tatsumi Kimishima's original expectation to ship 2 million units of the console in its first month.

Of course, there are a few caveats — those two consoles came out during the holiday seasons of their respective launch years, both available during Black Friday in America, while the Switch launched in March.

Nintendo previously used the spring for dedicated handheld launches, making the Nintendo 3DS the most recent point of comparison for this time of year. The 3DS, by March 31, 2011, had sold 3.61 million units, according to Nintendo, after first launching in Japan on February 26, 2011.

So do these new numbers tell us anything more about the future sales possibilities for the Switch? Unfortunately, not really. As noted in our original analysis, the Wii and Wii U initial sales numbers are quite close. But the Wii would go on to sell over 100 million units worldwide, while the Wii U has only pushed over 13.5 million units. That large gap in total sales is in no way indicated by the two consoles' largely similar launch performances, and so it's difficult to say how well the Switch will sell based on its current figures.

Nintendo is confident in the console's ability to continue selling, however. The company expects to sell 10 million Switches through the next year, which would bring the system close to the Wii U's total lifespan sales in about a quarter of the time. Whether the Switch can meet Nintendo's yearlong expectations will likely be a much more telling indicator of the console's sales viability.

For more on the Nintendo Switch's launch, read our original analysis for more on the console and Breath of the Wild's debuts.

Nintendo has offered preliminary word of the Nintendo Switch's launch success, as well as The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, in multiple territories throughout the world. But what do those statements actually tell us about the launch, and are they any indicator of the Switch's longevity?

Statements and data regarding the Americas, Europe, Japan, and now Australia have been revealed, including what Nintendo touts as the best-ever debuts for a system in Europe as well as in North and South America combined.

Below, we've taken a look at Nintendo's official statements and addressed what they do and also don't tell us about the Switch's launch, particularly when compared to previous hardware launches.

Nintendo Switch in the Americas

Word came via an interview with Reggie Fils-Aime done with The New York Times about the Switch's success in North and South America. Fils-Aime revealed that the Switch’s first two days of sales were the biggest for that time frame in the Americas for any system in Nintendo history. The next biggest was Wii.

Exact figures, however, are not publicly available to compare this time frame to either the launch of the Wii or the system that followed it, the Wii U. NOA first revealed Wii sales eight days after the console’s debut in 2006, saying the system had sold 600,000 units in that period in the Americas. Fils-Aime also later revealed that 400,000 Wii U consoles were sold during its first week on sale in 2012, compared to 300,000 Wii units in that same, somewhat smaller time frame. It's also important to note that 2006's Black Friday fell during the Wii's first eight days of sales in North America.

IGN has reached out to Nintendo for further comment on sales data from those two-day timeframes, Switch availability compared to the Wii and Wii U, and how these console sales compare to handheld system launches.

Nintendo has previously said it is aiming to ship two million Switch units through the end of its fiscal year — March 31, 2017 — but there is no official word about how much of that planned shipment was available at launch in the Americas.

The Switch is only today crossing the full week mark of being available for sales, and so data may be forthcoming. It’s also important to note the timeframes in which these last three systems were released. The Wii and Wii U released on Sundays, while the Switch released on a Friday.

The two Wii consoles’ second days on the market then would have been Mondays, whereas the Switch's second day on sale was a Saturday. Conversely, the Switch released in the spring, whereas both the Wii and Wii U both released in November of their respective launch years, a time more often associated with hardware launches and holiday sales.

And of course, it’s also important to note that the Wii and Wii U were shipped during November, while the Switch launched in March. Nintendo’s last major spring hardware release was the 3DS, which sold 440,000 units in its first week in 2011.

International Switch Sales

Nintendo of Europe also touted the Switch's launch weekend as better than "any other Nintendo hardware in history." No specific figures were offered with this statement. For comparison, the Wii sold 325,000 units in its first two days across Europe.

The Switch also reportedly sold 313,000 units in Japan during the system's first 48 hours on sale, which beat the Wii U's 308,000 units sold during the same period. At the time of its launch, the Wii was estimated to have sold over 370,000 units during its first two days on sale in 2006.

Nintendo also confirmed that in Australia and New Zealand combined, the Switch is the most successful Nintendo hardware launch in the company's history following its launch weekend. The Wii at the time of its launch was Australia's fastest-selling console in history, pushing 32,900 units in its first four days according to local reports.

Breath of the Wild Success Worldwide

In addition to boasting about the Switch's success, Nintendo also touted The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild's sales throughout the world, though with some caveats.

Fils-Aime also told The New York Times that The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild is the best-selling standalone launch title in Nintendo’s history in the Americas, beating out Super Mario 64. Exact figures were not mentioned, nor was clarification on whether Fils-Aime meant on launch day or in that two-day window he used for the Switch’s sales.

In the eight-day figure provided for the Wii's launch, Nintendo also had revealed that system's launch Zelda title — The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess — sold 454,000 copies in that period, which included 2006's Black Friday.

It's also important to note FIls-Aime's use of the word "standalone" for the game's success in the Americas. Standalone negates the inclusion of pack-in titles, so the company is not comparing it to games like Wii Sports and Nintendo Land. Fils-Aime previously explained why the Switch doesn’t have a pack-in title.

Breath of the Wild was also touted as the the "biggest-selling Nintendo launch title ever in Europe, even outselling Wii Sports in its first weekend sales." Similarly, Nintendo said Breath of the Wild was also the best-selling launch title in Australia and New Zealand, "even outselling Wii Sports," which was a pack-in title in both Europe and Australia.

Considering Nintendo's comments about the game in Europe then, we can at least infer that Breath of the Wild sold more than 325,000 units on that continent.

What Does This Mean for the Switch's Future Success?

Truthfully, not much.

Perhaps the most important thing these initial successes don’t tell us is what the future holds for the Switch. It is certainly a strong start for Nintendo’s latest hardware release, but launch successes are not necessarily an indicator of how the system will fare months or years from now.

Take the Wii U for example, which sold a little over three million units worldwide through the end of 2012, coming close to matching the 3.19 million units the Wii sold in its first quarter on the market. Of course, the Wii U would go on to sell only 13.5 million units through the start of 2017. In its lifetime, the Wii sold over 100 million units.

So while the records broken, albeit with unknown public numbers, by the Switch are promising for the system, more data, and many more months of sales on the market, are needed to make any true educated guess about how the system could perform in the coming years.

For more on the future of Nintendo Switch software, check out Nintendo Voice Chat's talk with Nintendo's Damon Baker to discuss third-party and indie games on Nintendo's latest hardware. And for everything on the Switch, from hardware to all announced games, stick to IGN's Nintendo Switch wiki.

Jonathon Dornbush is an Associate Editor for IGN. Find him on Twitter @jmdornbush.

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