Ryan Reynolds tweeted a mock "For Your Consideration" Deadpool ad to Academy members last February just days before the Oscars were held. Now, almost a year later and mere days before Oscar nomination voting closes, the merc with a mouth's movie is back in the Academy Awards conversation but in a far more serious way.
Having earned a Producers Guild of America nomination this week as one of the year's best films, Deadpool has a chance at doing what The Dark Knight couldn't and become the first superhero blockbuster to score an Academy Award nomination for Best Picture. But it's a long shot.
While receiving a PGA nomination is certainly a good omen for a film's Oscar chances, it doesn't mean that film's a shoo-in for an Academy Award nom. The PGA and the Academy do often nominate many of the same films for Best Picture, but that's not always the case. For example, the acclaimed sci-fi film Ex Machina earned a PGA nom but the Academy overlooked it in the Best Picture category. Ditto The Dark Knight.
When it comes to Deadpool's Oscar chances, the difference in an Academy member's tastes from those of the PGA (or any critics group for that matter) obviously plays a big factor. But so too does the Academy's current voting system, which allows for there to be between five and ten Best Picture nominees. It's also how those nominees -- which will be announced January 24 -- are tabulated that will determine whether Deadpool scores one of those coveted five-to-ten spots.
Let's start with Oscar voters' tastes. In reaction to last year's #OscarsSoWhite controversy, the Academy overhauled its rules and inducted new members in order to diversify and age-down their ranks. Could this younger, more diverse Oscar voting pool embrace the sort of edgy, comedic, R-rated genre fare that Academy members traditionally overlooked in the past? Sure, it's possible. But an Oscar is and will remain Hollywood's most prestigious honor, and as such the Academy is likely to still favor more dramatic (and in most cases less mainstream, pop culture-driven) fare.
The genre films that have previously landed Best Picture noms, such as Mad Max: Fury Road, tend to come from filmmakers with an awards circuit track record. Another PGA nominee, the sci-fi drama Arrival from director Denis Villeneuve, has a better shot at a Best Picture Oscar nom in that case than Tim Miller's Deadpool does.
But even if Academy members actually did bother to see Deadpool and loved it, the Academy's own voting system will require them to love Deadpool even more than acclaimed, award-friendly films such as La La Land and Moonlight.
Awards pundit site Gold Derby explained the Oscar voting process this way:
"All members of the academy will get to fill in nomination ballots for Best Picture and are asked to list up to five films. There will be between five and 10 nominees for Best Picture. To reap a bid, a film has to be one of the top choices of at least 5% of the members taking part in the nomination phase."
That means, if Deadpool is only an Oscar voter's third, fourth or fifth entry for best picture of the year, there's simply no mathematical route for it to make the final cut of five-to-ten Best Picture nominees. But let's say it does land a Best Picture nomination, there's still no way -- for the aforementioned reasons -- that Deadpool is going to beat La La Land or Moonlight to actually win the Academy's Best Picture. Not. Gonna. Happen.
Obviously, Best Picture isn't the only Oscar category Deadpool could compete in. Ryan Reynolds is certainly back in the industry's good graces so, while it's highly unlikely, maybe he surprises and lands a Best Actor nomination as he did at the Golden Globes (he lost to Ryan Gosling).
Deadpool's screenplay did receive noms from both the Globes and the Writers Guild of America. But for various reasons (e.g., a film's writer not being a WGA member), the WGA ruled ineligible several of the acclaimed films that will likely go on to score an Oscar nom for Best Adapted Screenplay over Deadpool. And the process of (and voting body behind) the Globes, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is an entirely different kind of beast than the Academy. As with Best Picture and Best Actor, it's possible Deadpool could earn an Oscar nom for its screenplay, but it's now competing against films such as Lion and The Lobster where some of disqualifying rules the WGA used don't apply.
With those three main categories longshots, it seems Deadpool's strongest chances of landing any Oscar nomination are in the technical categories, but even there it should be noted that it's already been eliminated from the Best Visual Effects race.
While the odds sure seem stacked against Deadpool landing any major Oscar noms, it must be noted that the Fox-Marvel film has so far defied the odds at every turn, from even getting made (let alone in the way fans desired) to succeeding so wildly with general audiences ($783 million worldwide) and critics (84% "fresh" on Rotten Tomatoes) to earning as many industry honors as it has thus far. Maybe there's no hurdle too high for Deadpool to clear. Or maybe Deadpool will just sleep with every single Academy member in order to make sure he walks off with an Oscar. (You know he'd totally do that.)
Jim Vejvoda is the Executive Editor of IGN Movies. He may not be a merc, but he sure has a helluva mouth on him. Follow him on Twitter at @JimVejvoda.
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